Favorable Odds

Weekly Thought – May 26, 2026

Fred walked his talk. Early in his life he analyzed the necessary elements for success and set about applying them to his life. His hallmark resonant voice was the result of much practice and study. His ability to distill much data into wise counsel developed as he applied himself to the discipline of listening. Success is not a birthright – it is earned through “paying the price.” This week’s thought is longer than usual, but was too good to excerpt.

Favorable Odds

Success requires putting the odds in your favor. I am not a betting man. I always tell people if I lived in Las Vegas I would rather own the slot machine rather than play it – the odds are infinitely better. Of course, this Baptist boy only knows about Las Vegas from hearsay.

Ten elements help you create favorable odds:
1) Make a favorable impression. You can do this in several ways: ask good questions, listen well, be colorful but not showy, accent one area of brilliance, develop a believable voice, exhibit poise.
2) File your flight plan carefully. It isn’t enough to have a personal plan for progress. It is also important to know with whom to file it for others affect our success. Don’t assume others know what you want for the future.
3) Make results your measure for activity. Each day I start out asking myself, “What are you trying to do today?” And I remind myself that results is the only excuse for activity. My friend Mason Roberts taught me, “Having done my best today, it will be easier to do better tomorrow.”
4) Maintain good work habits. A habit’s chief function is to save time. Harry Peckheiser said, “Good work habits are unnecessary when I want to work; they are only for when I don’t want to work.”
5) Leverage Objectivity. What can’t be done doesn’t need thinking about. Be neither a pessimist nor an optimist if it means seeing everything one way – be a realist.
6) Stay connected to your roots. America is becoming a “cut flower culture” – temporarily beautiful, but fading because she is severed from the roots that grew her. You can’t change roots and stay the individual God intended. Greatness is not grafted.
7) Rein in the Big Three: health, money, and sex. Health controls energy, and energy determines how much of our time can be constructively used. It is important to keep personal money problems from disturbing your job concentration. The path to success isn’t usually paved with unpaid bills. And sex, save some time and energy from it to concentrate on business. Be temperate.
8) Accept failure soon enough. A banker friend once gave his best loan advice, “Don’t delay a failure with your money.” Generally, it’s our failures we laugh about later on… a way of smelling the roses which come up in the graveyards of our experience.
9) Avoid panic. Don’t believe you can wait for a crisis before learning to think in an emergency. You may be dead. Proper reactions are the response to proper action ahead of time. I always do “panic practice” where I live out every possible contingency, develop a plan, and train myself to react if needed.
10) Be a team player. Even if you prefer individual effort, it is important to know how to be a contributing member of a team… most organizational work is accomplished this way. Through the synergy of team, ordinary people can produce extraordinary results.

These ways of creating favorable odds are small and undramatic, but effective.

This week think about: 1) Which of these ten hit me the hardest? 2) How can I share these with others to help them? 3) Where do I need to grow?

Words of Wisdom: “Results are the only excuse for activity.

Wisdom from the Word: “The Lord said to Moses, “I will do this thing also that you have requested, for you have found favor in my sight, and I know you by name.” (Exodus 33:17 NET Bible)

The Winning Leader

Weekly Thought – May 19, 2026

Fred met many interesting people on airplanes, especially in the early days before celebrities used private transportation. On one flight he sat down next to a well-known actor. He opened the conversation with, “You are in wonderful physical shape. I would be, too, but I have to work. (At that time he was affectionately known as Fat Fred for the 220 pounds he carried on his 6’1” frame) I travel a lot, so I can’t focus on fitness.” “Oh, I travel a lot, too, but when I go into the hotel room, I sit on the luggage rack, put my toes under the bed and do back bends.” Not to be cowed by this, Fred ventured even deeper into the weeds. “Oh, but what about your shoulders? You need to be in the gym to develop them like that.” “No, I roll under the bed and push it up in the air.” Fred’s conclusion: Successful people say “I will” and less successful say, “I ought to; I plan to…”

The Winning Leader

Strong leaders understand the key elements of organizational development.
1) Selection – there is nothing more important than selecting the team. The smaller the organization, the more critical is this element. If you have 10 people, then each one represents 10%. In the corporation, I always use a multiple interview process to protect my blind spots. “Fit” is the word we use a lot, but it means understanding the culture, benefiting the organization, and promoting the common good.
2) Removal – The employer who fires too many is actually lacking in good selection. I have fired very few, but everyone knew I was willing if necessary… that is important. I find an underperforming associate is generally dissatisfied with the company, as well. The greatest payback is having that person come back years later and say, “Thank you – you did me the best favor in my life by letting me go.”
3) Strengths versus Weaknesses – I never deal with people’s weaknesses. This may sound cynical, but after a lifetime of executive experience I am convinced people are the way they are because they want to be that way. People have some strange need to be the way they are, even if they continually talk about changing. Leaders recognize strengths and make people better where they are currently good. My goal is to accent the strength and help them move to a higher plane. I develop my strengths and buttress my weaknesses, but spend no time trying to turn weaknesses into strengths – it rarely happens.
4) Motivation versus Manipulation – If you ask people to define motivation, they often say, “Getting people to do what you want them to do.” No, that’s manipulation. You cannot manipulate an organization long term. Motivation is mutual advantage. You show somebody how you can both win. And if there is no win-win, you shouldn’t be in association. People want to be part of a winning organization. They want to experience the excitement of contributing to the win.

Think about this: 1) How do I confuse manipulation with motivation? 2) Where am I spending too much time working on a weakness? 3) What methods do I use for team selection?

Words of Wisdom: “Accentuate your strengths and buttress your weaknesses.”

Wisdom from the Word: “But the wise will shine like the brightness of the heavenly expanse. And those bringing many to righteousness will be like the stars forever and ever.” (Daniel 12:3 NET Bible)

Psychological Barriers

Weekly Thought – May 12, 2026

Fred saw potential in others. He thoroughly enjoyed spending time with talented men and women. Visionaries got his juices going. He kept mental files in which he stored ideas to share with them when they were together.

Psychological Barriers

Visioning is one of the critical tasks of leadership. But they must be careful to avoid psychological barriers. One of the things I enjoy most is blowing up the “bridges to nowhere” that these barriers create. Let me lay out a few for you:
1) Age – One of the nation’s top psychiatrists was visiting in our home (nonprofessionally, of course). He asked, “Fred. how old are you?” “50” was my answer. “Okay, start making longer plans.” When I objected he cut me off with this observation “When you start making shorter plans, you’re subconsciously telling yourself to die.” Interesting thought. People come and say to me, “I wish I had done this and done that 20 years ago.” My response is always, “Well, what are you going to do with the next 20?” A good friend was asked by his mentor Bill Bright, President and Founder of Campus Crusade for Christ “How old are you?” He answered, “68.” Bill looked at him and challenged him, “You have 20 good years left – make it count.” Age can be a stumbling block when it should be a platform for acceleration.
2) Education – In America we’ve gone crazy on credentials and degrees. We have three children who all have advanced degrees and we are proud of that, but I occasionally remind them to get an education while they are getting the degrees. I was unable to go to college a day in my life, except to lecture. I have probably lectured at more than 25 universities. Even today I meet men and women who feel “less than” because they have no degree. I remember feeling the indignity of being in a group of dignified academics who proudly identified themselves with their alma maters. I finally decided I had the right to not have a degree.
3) Location – “It can’t happen here” is a deadly barrier. As I travel the country I like to see where bold things happen, especially in places where they are not supposed to happen. Wonder why somebody didn’t tell the Mayo Brothers Rochester, Minnesota was a ridiculous place to put a world-famous clinic. Who told Maxey Jarman an international apparel company could be headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee?
4) Unbelief – “It can’t happen to me.” True leaders know there aren’t enough extraordinary people to achieve their greatest dream, so they must find the ordinary and light their fires. Yes, it can happen and must. Mason Roberts told me “Take one hundred people, spur them to each do 1% more, and you have a whole new person.”

Think about this week: 1) What barrier is stopping my progress? 2) How can I help others to do 1% more? 3) When am I most effective as a visionary?

Words of Wisdom: “Age can be a stumbling block when it should be a platform for acceleration.”

Wisdom from the Word: “That day the Lord brought honor to Joshua before all Israel. They respected him all his life, just as they had respected Moses.” (Joshua 4:14 NET Bible)

Keep Looking!

Weekly Thought – May 5, 2026

Fred loved to turn experiences into experiments. He once underwent dental work with a stopwatch. He decided to run the watch just when it really hurt, not when he thought he was going to hurt; now when he was afraid he was going to hurt – just when it hurt. He reported it was only four seconds! Not many of us would volunteer for that!

Keep Looking!

As leaders of businesses, institutions, and families, we need to:
1) Find Opportunities. An SMU professor said the difference between corporate and entrepreneurial is the perception of a situation as either a problem to be solved or an opportunity to be maximized. A Harvard study showed focusing on problem solving dulled the ability to see opportunities. But, opportunities have to be within the purpose of the organization. I once sent a quick note to my daughter who was always seeing “open doors.” “Opportunity is not mandate” was my cryptic counsel. Many businesses and ministries hang up “Out of Business” signs because they didn’t define what they did and adjust opportunities to fit the mission.
2) Define Problems. A problem is something I can do something about; a fact of life is something I cannot solve. Understanding the difference is critical to leadership. I have no use of my right hand because I fell on a Mason jar at age 3 and a drunk physician allowed an infection. Is that my problem? No, that is a fact of life. Have you seen people who spend their time fighting with facts of life? Stick with the problems – something you can do something about.
3) Look for the Key Log. An amateur will always try to move all the logs around to get them moving down the stream. A pro climbs a tree, finds the key log, and blows it out – then the movement continues. But you can’t kid yourself about what the log is and you can’t duck it. A friend who was a President of a bank called to say he was working himself to death. I asked, “Who’s work are you doing? Anytime you are overworked, you are doing work that isn’t yours.” He thought and said, “The cashier’s.” That was the key log. Time to blow it out.
4) Value Confidence. Confidence doesn’t increase your ability one iota. So, what is its value? It gives you the ability to concentrate. Concentration is thinking the right thing at the right time. Fear and cockiness are enemies of concentration. One distracts from accomplishment by saying “you can’t.” The other distracts by falsely saying, “you can.” True confidence gives us focus and allows our abilities to operate freely.

Think about this: 1) How does confidence help me concentrate? 2) Who needs to hear Fred’s words today? 3) Where have I transposed problem and fact of life?

Words of Wisdom: “Concentration is thinking the right thing at the right time.”

Wisdom from the Word: “So then, whenever we have an opportunity, let us do good to all people, and especially to those who belong to the family of faith.” (Galatians 6:10 NET Bible)

Tired of Boredom

Weekly Thought – April 28, 2026

Fred rarely allowed himself to wallow in the blahs. “There’s nothing wrong with me a little excitement wouldn’t cure.” And that excitement often came in later years with a phone call from friends, a visit, or preparation for his Fred in the Bed sessions. He refused to accept life as a dead end.

“I learned what it looks like to finish well as I watched Fred,” said one of the faithful Fred in the Bed folks. Each minute of life is a teachable moment.

Tired of Boredom

Boredom is the dry rot of our soul. It comes when we feel we’re not doing something worth the time. Or when what we are doing isn’t interesting, meaningful, or challenging. Boredom can also be the result of living life too efficiently and not effectively enough. When life becomes a series of habits and routines, our creative juice dry up and we prune up.

I remember hearing our children say to Mary Alice, “I am so bored — there’s nothing to do.” She generally offered a dish rag or a dust mop which generated a flurry of “let’s get out of here” activity. I usually said, “Well, what are you going to do about it?” We need to learn early on the solution to boredom is our responsibility, not that of others.

The pseudo-sophisticate who feigns boredom just to look suave wears me out. The danger of allowing ourselves to live in that mood is that melancholy waits at the door. We can spiral down by refusing to lift ourselves out of the emotional quagmire which grows out of constant boredom.

Here are three suggestions if you are bored:
1) Break up the repetitions of life. Sometimes the slightest alterations can create interest. When I was speaking constantly and a talk became routine, I would rearrange the points to pique my own interest and increase my concentration. Routine is necessary for efficiency, but life is more than efficiently managed time.
2) Add something to your life. Start a new activity, begin a new hobby, see the old things in a new way, cultivate a new friendship, do something specific for others each day. Don’t forget — the more bored you are, the less interesting you will be to others. As you add more dimension to your life, others will notice.
3) Take something bad out of your life. We all have junk that weighs us down and holds us back. For Fat Fred it is often those 20 pounds that pound away at me. The sedentary life is a doorway to boredom. Professional “goofing off” probably needs to go. Mary Alice and I spent a New Year’s Eve in Naples, Italy. Their custom is to throw everything they don’t want into the street so they don’t carry it into the next year. Bored? Try junking the junk.

Boredom is the sure sign of poor self-management and lack of personal responsibility.

This week carefully consider: 1) How do I respond to “I’m so bored.”? 2) When is the last time I felt bored? 3) Who needs some encouragement to take personal responsibility?

Words of Wisdom: “Bored? Try junking the junk.”

Wisdom from the Word: “When Jesus saw him lying there and when he realized that the man had been disabled a long time already, he said to him, ‘Do you want to become well?’” (John 5:6 NET Bible)

Joy and Respect

Weekly Thought – April 21, 2026

Fred’s influence on others continues, even 5 years after his homegoing. “I find myself using his phrases and quoting his thoughts,” said JH. “He was so down to earth and the things he said just seem to fit in.”

Joy and Respect

Joy comes to those who can truthfully (yet humbly) know they deserve respect. We have an inner reading on our personal attributes which measure up. Feeling respect for oneself is somewhat like feeling we belong. Sadly, some people never feel the satisfaction of understanding their place in life. Some of this comes from never gaining self-respect.

Becoming respected begins with becoming respectable. Living life worthily is the way of joy and respect. Gandhi understood this.

Bill Glass, my friend who dedicated his life to prisoners, speaks often of the way the incarcerated think of themselves and others. Unfortunately, positive respect gets perverted into admiration for criminal behavior. He believes their path began with a lack of human respect. Most of them never understood respect is earned because of our human potential for being a contributing, loving person. And just as important, that we exercise self-restraint in preventing harm to others.

I always say service is the rent I pay for the space I occupy on this earth. Too often we measure worth in dollars. Respect doesn’t come through accumulation alone. For example, mothers who may have never made an outside dollar in their life but raise children well and hold their families together deserve great respect and honor. Some of those who deserve great respect earn the least. I think of teachers and preachers.

Once I talked to a retiring executive who said his lifetime ambition was to “leave a better team on the field than the one I joined.” He built a lifetime legacy. A boy scout told me they were trained to leave their campground cleaner than when they arrived. That is a tremendous way to develop respect for oneself and the organization. I love the story of the old man who donated his eye to a young man so after he was gone he knew the eye would go on seeing. Purposeful giving garners respect.

The wonderful thing about joyful respect is the opportunity to weigh ourselves daily as long as we live. If the scales show us a bit short, we can do something about it immediately. Those who show no interest in earning respect by making a contribution have very little joy and usually a lot of guilt.

This week think about: 1) What do I most respect about myself? 2) How am I paying my rent? 3) Who models respect most profoundly?

Words of Wisdom: “Purposeful giving garners respect.”

Wisdom from the Word: “The hope of the righteous is joy, but the expectation of the wicked will remain unfulfilled.” (Proverbs 10:28 NET Bible)

Spiritual Dishonesty

Weekly Thought – April 14, 2026

Fred referred to himself as doing “crooked thinking on the straight and narrow.” Leadership Journal titled an article in 1983, Straight Answers in a Crooked Age. Fred’s article on intellectual integrity within the community of faith is excerpted this week.

“Is this Fred Smith who wrote You and Your Network?” The question from a stranger at Asbury Seminary began a conversation on Fred’s impact. God’s wisdom never ages. Fred is in heaven, but his earthly work continues.

Spiritual Dishonesty

I was playing golf with the head of a financial company. Out of the blue he asked me, “Fred, do you think God will take away my money because I’m not active in church?” “What makes you think he will?” I asked. “My family tells me he will.” They’re using religion to police him. No wonder so many have a jaundiced view of our God.

This goes on all the time. I was listening to the tape of a Christian friend’s funeral. The officiating minister said, “Jesus got lonesome in heaven and took Chuck home to be with him.” What is that widow supposed to think about such a capricious God? What do his children and grandchildren think about a God who gets so lonesome He takes away someone they love? I thought to myself if Jesus wasn’t with Chuck during life, then Chuck isn’t with Jesus now! What intellectual dishonesty.

Growing up in a parsonage I had a bird’s eye view of people who took out their hostilities intimidating others with the threat of God’s displeasure. It took me a long time to understand a God of grace.

I was speaking at a meeting in our state capital. After the meeting, a young man with a bright, but noticeably serious, face came up to me. “Mr. Smith, do you have anything I can say to my wife? We have just lost our two year old son.” He paused and then quietly said, “Do you think I am getting paid back for my past sins?”

I don’t know who put that idea in his head, but I would love to write that person a long letter about the nature of God. I would write about a God I know who doesn’t carry out grudges against unsuspecting and innocent children. As I said this to him, he was relieved.

We are called to spiritual integrity. We are called to rightly represent God.

This week think carefully about: 1) What inaccurate views of God am I carrying? 2) How do others attempt to police me for their own ends? 3) What freedom in Christ am I being called to display?

Words of Wisdom: “We are called to rightly represent God.”

Wisdom from the Word: “Now the Lord is the Spirit, and where the Spirit of the Lord is present, there is freedom.” (2 Corinthians 3:17 NET Bible)

Purposeful Mentoring

Weekly Thought – April 7, 2026

Fred believed in stretching by adding responsibility. He assumed others wanted to do their best and to grow; he mentored by adding weight.

“The weekly thought came at just the right time for me. Thank you continuing Fred’s work,” wrote a North Carolina man. He is growing through stretching.

Purposeful Mentoring

A common mistake is thinking mentoring means older men visiting with younger men without an agenda and moving eventually toward a Bible study or prayer time. Visiting, Bible study, and prayer are all excellent activities, but they are not mentoring.

Mentoring is a one-on-one relationship for the specific and definable development of a skill or an art. One of my favorite mentoring stories is the young pianist who came to Leonard Bernstein and asked to be mentored. Bernstein said, “Tell me what you want to do, and I will tell you whether or not you’re doing it.”

When you analyze this, you realize Bernstein truly understood mentoring. The young man initiated the contact, had a specific request, and made the request of an authority. I assume the young man didn’t come to Bernstein only to get rich as a concert artist, but because he wanted to be a better pianist.

I am often asked, “How do I look for the right mentor?” The mentor and mentoree must share a compatible philosophy. Our goals and methods are really an expression of our fundamental life philosophies. As a Christian, in mentoring someone who wants to grow spiritually, the process must be built on divine principles. A young man came to me asking for my help in making him a millionaire. That was his life’s goal. His focus was on materialistic, humanistic outcomes. I told him we were not compatible philosophical, so I would not be a good mentor for him.

The mentor needs to be knowledgeable in the subject and objective in his assessments. The mentor who says what the mentoree wants to hear is irresponsible. He should not counsel in matters in which he is not an expert or pass judgment in subjects beyond his limitations. It is important to be able to say, “I don’t know; I’ve had no experience with that.” But, if that becomes a common response, this is not a good mentoring relationship.
The mentoree comes to learn and the mentor must have skills and experiences that promote the growth.

This week think about: 1) What skills do I have to offer a mentoree? 2) Who is my current mentor? 3) How do I ascertain if my philosophy matches another’s?

Words of Wisdom: “Mentoring is a one-on-one relationship for the specific and definable development of a skill or an art.”

Wisdom from the Word: “Let the wise also hear and gain instruction, and let the discerning acquire guidance!” (Proverbs 1:5 NET Bible)

Making Peace

Weekly Thought – March 31, 2026

Fred wrote for Leadership Journal from its inception. He created interest by choosing subjects which most avoided. He worked with Harold Myra, Paul Robbins, and Marshall Shelley for years as they brought cutting edge material to the marketplace. This week’s thought is excerpted from a 1984 article titled “Why Peacemakers Aren’t Popular.” In today’s environment, a word about peace is helpful.

Encouraging emails this week comment on the ongoing value of Fred’s thinking. “It could have been written last week” is a frequent expression. That is the benefit of principle-based work. “Only the illustrations change,” said Fred.

Have you been stretched by Fred’s words? Who else needs to know about the Weekly Thought? Help us expand the reach and deepen the impact of Fred’s lifework by sharing.

Making Peace

Nothing I know starts fights faster than the subject of peacemaking. In principle, of course, everyone is for it. But it’s amazing how defensive and hostile people get trying to make peace.

One of the reasons peacemaking isn’t popular is simply because some have a vested interest in conflict. We see this in union/management negotiations, and sadly, even in the church. I have seen leaders take up the “purification of the church” cause thinking they are defending God. Personally, I don’t think God needs help, especially from the hostile.

Peacemaking is an action springs out of the right attitude. Sure, we will have differences, but they shouldn’t create anger and separation. Mishandling differences just raises the emotional temperature. We aren’t supposed to be fever-makers, but peace-makers.

We don’t redeem situations by changing organizational structures. We redeem them by bringing in a different spirit – the spirit of Christ – even if it means we’ll lose. As difficult as this is for me personally, it’s still true.

The Spirit of Christ eliminates the inflammation and inflammatory.

It’s amazing with the nearly universal desire for peace, very few people are willing to pay the price it requires. Like the rest of the traits mentioned in the Beatitudes, peacemaking is admired as an ideal and ignored as a reality. Too many of us prefer power to peace.

What Christians must remember is power does not come by vanquishing others. Power doesn’t even come by defending the right causes or the purity of our theology. No, true power (and peace) come through humility and obedience. And that’s a price few are willing to pay.

Think about: 1) How interested am I in peacemaking? 2) What price am I paying for peace? 3) What do I “go to the wall” for?

Words of Wisdom: “Too many of us prefer power to peace.”

Wisdom from the Word: “The Lord lift up his countenance upon you and give you peace.” (Numbers 6:26 NET Bible)

Great Teachers Are

Weekly Thought – March 24, 2026

Fred distilled. He took information and absolutely squeezed it dry until he had the essence and the principles. Then, he used them as platforms for magnificent high dives! He read an article by a French music teacher, Nadia Boulanger, on the art of instruction. He commented on the article in a memo to three nationally known teachers who were close friends. Then, he developed his own “attributes of great teachers” list.

Legacy is living and breathing. Fred’s “word of wisdom gift” (as a ministry leader referred to it this week) is being passed on through the lives he touched. Thank you for participating in prayer, words of encouragement, and financial gifts as we build the Breakfast With Fred Leadership Institute.

Great Teachers Are…

Allen Shawn interviewed the French music teacher, Nadia Boulanger, for the Atlantic Monthly. His summation makes me think about great teachers: “She was devoted above all to God, and to the idea of music not as the monument of an individual but as mankind’s monument to God.” I like that. So where can we take that? My kids showed me a book, “Love is a Warm Puppy.” Too “ooky-gooky” for me, but it got me to thinking, Great Teachers…

1. Show the student that learning is part of the larger life… the specific course of study is not the whole, but a valuable piece.

2. Shed light on the dark areas of ignorance, showing them the beauty of construction.

3. Express truth that great talent always appears to the owner to be outside himself.

4. Realize we are limited by our emotional capabilities and we should be experience situations which test and expand our emotional wheelbase. Protecting against hurt insulates us from participating in life.

5. Understands candor in coaching should never cause embarrassment.

6. Communicates in vivid images which are unforgettable.

7. Walks comfortably with the transcendental nature of life – sees the longer view.

8. Balances affection and detachment. “I believe in you” is not “I see me in you.”

9. Appreciates the rhythm of learning and the discipline of structured instruction.

10. Recognizes learning consists of layers and layers of understanding and engagement which are constantly being peeled away like an onion.

11. Relishes the transition from memorization of a subject to being overwhelmed by its beauty.

12. Seeks a student who personifies what he or she believes and teaches.

This week carefully consider: 1) Which teacher has influenced me most greatly? 2) Who am I currently teaching? 3) Which of Fred’s points rang a bell with me?

Words of Wisdom: “It is wonderful when a teacher finds a student who personifies what he/she believes and teaches.”

Wisdom from the Word: “Then a voice came from the cloud saying, ‘This is my Son, my Chosen one. Listen to Him!’” (Luke 9:35 NET Bible)

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